The race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is essentially tied with just four weeks to go until Election Day. But let’s dig a little deeper.
The ups and downs, ebbs and flows, bumps and slumps that have characterized this unpredictable and chaotic campaign season seem to have stabilized. Credible polling indicates that with four weeks until Election Day, the 2024 presidential contest is tied nationally and tighter than a tick in the seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. According to the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average, neither candidate is up by more than 1 point in these battlegrounds. In six of the seven, the margin is either less than 1 point or in an exact tie.
Some internal polling shows former President Trump gaining ground in Wisconsin and in must-win Pennsylvania, our “reach state” in 2016 and one that remains poised to help decide the presidency this year.
Trump is experiencing his best polling in the three times he has been the Republican nominee. Nationally, the latest RCP average shows Harris up by only 2.0%. That is quite a contrast from 2020, where Joe Biden led by 10%, and in 2016, which showed Hillary Clinton up by 5.8%. Trump could be headed for a “narrow landslide.”
RealClearPolitics (RealClearPolitics – Live Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls) posts a chart daily showing the polling averages nationwide and in the swing states on “This Day in History” comparing 2016, 2020, and 2024 polling. Sure, it illustrates flawed and agenda-driven polling by media outlets and academic institutions, but it also exposes the vulnerabilities Harris has relative to Biden and Clinton at this same stage.
BATTLEGROUND DEM WARNS TRADITIONAL VOTING BLOC BEING ‘SPLIT’ IN 2024
For 35 years as a pollster, I’ve been urging people to dig beyond the horserace numbers and examine the fundamentals of what’s driving voter opinion and what the truly 5% undecideds wish to see, read and hear to help them settle on a candidate. Let’s dig into a few of them.
First, look at the issue set. Harris is banking on abortion to keep her in the White House. Abortion is a vote motivator and turnout intensifier. Most abortion-minded voters (pro-life, pro-choice or somewhere in between) are baked into the existing electorate. A recent CNN poll showed 11% of likely voters said that abortion is their top issue. This week’s NYT/Siena poll indicated that only 3% of undecided voters said that abortion was their top issue in this election cycle.
In the same CNN national poll, 41% of likely voters said the economy was their most important issue, followed by protecting democracy (21%), and immigration (12%). Likely voters trust Trump over Harris on the economy (50% vs. 39%), immigration (49% vs. 35%), and foreign policy (47% vs. 40%). Even among those who find Trump’s policies “too extreme” (yes, CNN asked that questions), 15% trust him more on the economy and immigration These voters are a good example of what we saw in 2016: We complain, kvetch and converse according to what offends us, but we vote according to what affects us.
HARRIS’ STRUGGLES WITH MICHIGAN’S WORKING-CLASS VOTERS PROVIDES OPENING FOR TRUMP, GOP
Harris’ problem of being both ill-defined on issues but well-defined on transparency were revealed in a recent Fox News national poll. Just 43% of voters say Harris says what she believes; separately, 55% think she says whatever it takes to get elected. In contrast, a majority (51%) says the ubiquitous, loquacious Trump speaks what he believes.
Second, Harris continues to underperform among core constituencies that any Democratic presidential campaign must retain to win. Harris gained reluctant Democratic voters upset with Biden, but she continues to underperform Biden’s actual 2020 Election Day margins. She has failed to scaffold together either the Obama Coalition of 2008 or the Biden (Harris) Coalition of 2020.”
The major key cohort that Harris is overperforming with is White College Grads, where she is running 9% better than Biden at this point in October 2020 and 16 points ahead of Biden’s eventual Election Day margin. Otherwise, the Harris Honeymoon is over and her debate performance is in the rear-view, as she struggles to skeptical voters she needs to win.:
● Harris is losing working-class voters by 36%. Biden lost them by 26%
● Harris is up among Black voters by 64%. Biden won them by 81%
●Biden won Hispanics by a 23-point margin in 2020, where current polls show Hispanics migrating toward Trump and but Harris’ lead anywhere from a few points to 14.)
●Harris has a lead of 17 points among young voters (aged 18-29), but Democrats have won this group by over 20 points in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections. (She is also only +12 among voters under 34, a group Biden won by double that, 24 points, in 2020.)
●Harris is hemorrhaging men, losing them to Trump by 14 points, an increase over Biden 6% deficit in 2020, creating a double gender gap.
Significantly, rank-and-file union members are tepid about Harris and not timid about supporting Trump. The Teamsters, “America’s largest, most diverse union” boasting 1.3 million members, declined to endorse a presidential candidate for the first time since 1996. That slap at Harris followed internal polling that showed 60% of members intend to vote for Trump, and just 34% for Harris.
KAMALA HARRIS CONFRONTED ON NOT EARNING TEAMSTERS ENDORSEMENT: ‘WHAT WAS THEIR REASONING?’
So, Trump has successfully grown his coalition with more Hispanics, Blacks, union households, men, working-class, non-college educated and younger voters. If Trump maintains his gains among these key groups, and continues to outperform Republicans from historical standards, the 45th president will be the 47th president.
Third, the political environment and underlying fundamentals are more favorable to Trump and the GOP, according to Gallup.
●Americans are dissatisfied with the state of the nation, with only 22% satisfied the way things are going in the US
●They view the economy negatively with a Democratic administration in office. 48% view the current economic conditions as “poor” versus only 22% who think they are “excellent” or “good.”
●46% believe the GOP is better able to handle the most important problems facing our nation, compared to 41% who think the Democrats can do the same.
●Republicans also have an advantage in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings. 48% are Republican/Lean Republican, vs. 45% Democratic/Lean Democratic.
And in the CNN national poll, 51% of Americans view the Trump presidency as a success, while 61% view the Biden-Harris presidency as a failure.
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For all the talk of diversity, expansion, forward-looking turn the page-iness, Americans still feel Harris and her party feel stale and sclerotic. Biden is hanging around the rim, affirming in his recent press conference that Harris has been his #2 the entire time, as inflation exploded, the border disappeared, the world erupted with war all around.
Fourth, gains in the non-sexy parts of politics are bolstering the GOP and Trump. The Trump Campaign, RNC and allied groups have smartly invested heavily in those efforts, buttressing election integrity measures, and building a ground game and a get-out-the-vote operation targeted at those elusive, yet decisive, noncommitted voters. Even Trump has changed his tune on early voting this cycle, telling voters, including viewers on my show, Fox Nation’s “Here’s the Deal with Kellyanne,” to make a plan and vote how and when they are most comfortable, including early, something he said he might do in Florida this month.
Republicans are also gaining an edge of hundreds of thousands of votes compared to the 2020 Election. For example, in September 2020, there were about 685,000 more registered Democrats in Pa., and 391,000 more registered Democrats in N.C. than Republicans. By comparison, in September 2024, there are only 343,000 more registered Democrats in Pa. and 126,000 more registered Democrats in N.C. than Republicans.
Meanwhile, reports show that Trump, as well as his dynamic Vice-Presidential nominee JD Vance, will barnstorm the swing states and be on the plane every day from here on out as he has been doing the last few weeks. This was key to his 2016 election victory. This is the most savvy and strategic way to keep Trump front and center, offering solutions, getting specific, showing joy on the job, and challenging his political opponent on her record and rationale for running (“I’m not Biden; I’m not Trump” feels stale). If he is in your city, he’s in your consciousness – just look at the local news in Butler, PA this weekend.
In our culturally cleaved, politically divided country, the 2024 presidential election may mirror the tighter-than-a-tick 2016 and 2020 contests, which were decided by handfuls of votes across several states out of more than 155 million cast in 2020 alone.
This may come down to a technical, tactical trench warfare campaign, a battle of who is seen as more competent and, in the face of natural disasters, more ready, responsive and compassionate. This will help engage (and not just enrage) voters who see a binary choice in governing and vision.
The polling may suggest a race at “deuce” but the advantage is currently for Trump. He and his running mate, Senator JD Vance, pledge to stay on the road daily, blitzing key states while dipping into traditionally Democratic demographic cohorts.
Vice President Kamala Harris is mostly out of view, pretending she’s not the incumbent saddled with all that ills a nation in pain, and hermetically sealed by those afraid to let her speak publicly or outside of limited, friendly media settings.
Trump is racing the clock; Harris is trying to run it out. She has more money, but he has something money can’t buy: momentum.
