CNN data expert Harry Enten broke down the signs pointing to a Vice President Kamala Harris victory on Election Day.
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten discussed the factors that are indicating a potential Vice President Kamala Harris victory next Tuesday.
Enten made the case for Harris’ victory on Thursday, explaining how she’s the more popular candidate – who historically tends to win re-election – as well as the fact that Democratic candidates have been outperforming better than President Biden’s 2020 election in recent special elections – an indicator that Harris may do the same.
“The signs as clear as day,” Enten declared at the outset of the presentation, noting that if Harris wins, these were the obvious factors in the lead up.
Enten began with the simple fact that in every presidential election since 1956, the more popular candidate won, except for the 2016 election, during which the less popular Trump won.
“And the No. 1 sign is that Harris simply put, is more popular than Donald Trump. Her net favorable rating is higher than Trump’s. She’s at minus two, Trump‘s at minus seven. I went all the way back since 1956 and looked at the polls. Does the more popular candidate usually win? The answer is absolutely yes.”
He continued, “16 times the more popular candidate has won. Only one time, the less popular candidate has one. I will note that was Donald Trump back in 2016. But of course, remember Hillary Clinton was quite unpopular herself.”
He summed up the finding, stating, “But the bottom line is this: Kamala Harris has been consistently more popular in the polls than Donald Trump is. She’s consistently had a higher net favorable rating than Donald Trump and normally, usually the candidate who is more popular, goes on to win on Election Day.”
The next sign Enten discussed was that Democratic candidates have been outperforming the results of the last presidential election by two points on average in special election races over the last two years.
“So the fact that these Democrats have been doing better than Joe Biden‘s been doing, is a good sign. Historically speaking, there is a correlation between how folks do in the special elections – especially in this polarized era – and how folks do eventually in the presidential election.”
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Enten then went over the fact that Democratic candidates did well in the 2022 midterm elections despite only 27% of Americans viewing the country as being on the right track and Biden only having a 42% approval rating at that time – factors that usually point to a party in power being defeated at the ballot box.
“You can see it right here in 2024. It’s just 28% who say the country‘s on the right track, 40% approve of Joe Biden‘s job. But remember, in 2022, these metrics looked awfully, awfully similar – in fact, slightly less believed the country was on the right track, slightly more approved the of Joe Biden’s job, but very similar numbers here,” he said.
“And remember,” he added, “Even though the top metrics were bad for Democrats in 2022, the White House party did historically well in that midterm.”
He then concluded his argument: “So the bottom line is, Kate, a lot of Democrats believe that when voters vote, they win. And with abortion being a much bigger issue this time around than historically speaking, then it was in 2022, Democrats did historically well.”
“Perhaps Democrats will surprise a lot of folks and do historically well, come next Tuesday.”
This presentation followed Enten’s segment from a day earlier, which detailed the signs pointing to a former President Trump victory on Nov. 5.
