Ukraine relies on US military technology to maintain its F-16s, HIMARS and Patriot air defense systems. Unless Trump and Zelenskyy work out a deal, all of them could be at risk.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy needs to DocuSign that minerals deal right now.
Zelenskyy’s stubbornness is about to leave Ukraine’s front lines and cities naked to the Russians. Worst case, the war goes from static front lines to another attempted sweep toward Kyiv by Russia.
While Ukraine’s forces are well-supplied with artillery, armored vehicles and drones from the U.S. and NATO, all these systems live on fresh software updates. This is the modern battlefield: you don’t fight without constant tech refresh for operations and for maintenance. Not to mention space surveillance, and the crucial cyber protection NATO has extended to Ukraine since the war began.
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Given those realities, President Donald J. Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth can immediately turn off these six systems.
Ukraine can fly the F-16s it has already received, but constant updates to the avionics are necessary to keep Ukraine’s F-16s functioning at their peak. Heck, even the tech manuals are all electronic. So are the combat capability patches and upgrades. In summer 2024, the Air Force’s 68th Electronic Warfare Squadron worked with Denmark and Norway at a NATO ally laboratory to update the electronic warfare subsystems on Ukraine’s F-16s and fine-tune them for the Russian air defense threat.
It took a mix of seasoned experts and bright young engineers. “If not us, then who. We’re the best people to do this,” the 68th EWS chief engineer said at the time. Of course, the Russians change their electronic warfare tactics often, zapping out energy on different frequencies. Without constant updates, Ukraine’s F-16s won’t function at their peak. And you can forget about more pilot training slots for Ukraine’s F-16 pilots if U.S. aid stops.
The U.S.-made multiple-launch rocket system is the crown jewel of Ukraine’s artillery for hunting Russians at longer ranges. While Ukraine can still use those systems, the link to updated targeting strategies and maintenance vanishes without U.S. aid.
Germany, the U.S. and the Netherlands have all donated Patriot batteries or launchers, and it’s been a big success. Patriot is a terminal intercept system used against missiles, aircraft and drones and the Ukrainians have taken out Russian hypersonic Khinzal missiles.
Of course, this depends on constant updates to the integrated battle command systems that link radars and operators – and on missile resupply, such as the batch of retired PAC-2 missiles sent to Ukraine in January. Beyond this, air defense work best when cued by space systems providing what the military calls “persistent coverage.” In other words, satellites watch for heat and pass along the data. I doubt Ukraine can do that by themselves.
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One of the biggest strategic victories for Ukraine has been wiping out 40% of Russia’s Black Sea fleet and forcing Russia’s naval command to move out of their base at Sebastopol, Crimea. That’s huge. However, ruling the Black Sea took U.S. coastal Harpoon missiles and unmanned surface vessels and quite a bit of naval tactics coaching, all now in jeopardy.
The Switchblade is a loitering munition that can be carried in a backpack then launched against Russian targets. Developed for the U.S. in Afghanistan, Switchblades were in the first batch of aid to Kyiv. A deal was set up with maker Aerovironment to manufacture Switchblade in Ukraine, but that and other co-production deals freeze under the new policy.
Apparently, Ukraine has benefitted from some help in space, and not just from Elon Musk. The conflict in Ukraine has made it clear space is fundamental to modern war, Chief of the Space Force General Chance Saltzman told the Wall Street Journal a while back. Last December, he reminded everyone that when Russia invaded Ukraine, “one of their opening moves was a cyberattack against a ground station impacting the space data network.” Sounds to me like the U.S. has been guarding the space domain in a way that has helped Ukraine.
The Russians are big cyber warriors and ongoing U.S. support is essential to keep day-to-day systems running. When Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion began, Russia shot cruise missiles at Ukraine’s government data center and launched “wiper” attacks on computer networks. Fortunately, Ukraine had already disbursed its digital infrastructure in the cloud, with an assist from Microsoft and others in the tech sector, according to Microsoft President Brad Smith. Ukraine was unanimously voted into NATO’s cyber defenses in May 2023.
I could go on. The fact is, Ukraine cannot fight even a defensive war without the range of support from drones to nuclear protective equipment. All this, and more, is part of the security guarantee fabric the U.S. and NATO have extended to Ukraine. Zelenskyy is doing his soldiers no favor if he gives this up.
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